Friday, March 14, 2008
Global Warming - a statistical forecasting failure?
More on the Global Warming controversy.
Notice, I DID NOT SAY "problem"...
Notice, I DID NOT SAY "problem"...
The following paragraphs are from H. Sterling Burnett's article in the Washington Times:
"These problems led Mr. Wegman's team to conclude that the idea that the planet is experiencing unprecedented global warming 'cannot be supported.'"
"In a recent NCPA study, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong used these principles to audit the climate forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report. Messrs. Green and Armstrong found the IPCC clearly violated 60 of the 127 principles relevant in assessing the IPCC predictions. Indeed, it could only be clearly established that the IPCC followed 17 of the more than 127 forecasting principles critical to making sound predictions."
"The IPCC's policy recommendations are based on flawed statistical analyses and procedures that violate general forecasting principles. Policymakers should take this into account before enacting laws to counter global warming — which economists point out would have severe economic consequences."
